AEMET's Latest Data Reveals

Over the next few days, a large part of the Iberian Peninsula will be immersed in a clearly unstable scenario. A notable drop in temperatures is expected, along with the successive entry of several Atlantic frontal systems, which will bring significant snowfall to the main mountainous areas and, at times, even at lower altitudes than usual.

Despite this winter episode, the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has indicated in its latest seasonal forecast for the 2025–2026 meteorological winter that the average temperature for the quarter will, with high probability, lean towards the warmest tercile across most of Spain. This trend is accentuated on the Mediterranean coast and in the Balearic Islands, where the signal for positive anomalies is more marked.

During December, a persistent period of instability is expected, which will benefit numerous ski resorts, especially leading up to the December long weekend. Meteorological models indicate that the snowfall in the coming days could leave significant accumulations: between 20 and 30 centimeters in the Cantabrian Mountains, the Iberian System, and the Central System mountain ranges. In the Pyrenees, particularly at higher altitudes, snow depths could exceed these figures, creating a very favorable scenario for starting and consolidating the season on the Spanish side.

Moderately intense snowfall is also possible in Sierra Nevada during the second half of the week, which would help improve the snow cover for the first weeks of the winter season.

However, the forecasts for the winter as a whole are different. According to AEMET, there is a 60% to 70% probability that the quarter will register higher than usual temperatures, while the option of a colder winter barely reaches 10%.

The seasonal analysis prepared by the agency shows a clear tendency towards positive thermal anomalies: both the Peninsula and the archipelagos are represented with warm tones compared to the climatic average, a signal that probability intervals consider consistent and not an isolated model result.
On the Mediterranean coast and in the Balearic Islands, this trend is even more reinforced, exceeding 70% probability that winter will be "notably warmer" than the reference climatology.

But skiers should not be alarmed: a "warmer-than-average" winter does not imply the absence of cold snaps or intense storms. The snowfall of last week—and the subsequent rains—serve as an example, episodes that significantly affected the Cantabrian Mountains, while northerly winds complicated the situation at resorts located on the southern flank of the Pyrenees.
This new winter episode could even accelerate the opening of those resorts that have not yet started the season.